The Big Analysis — Minnesota

Posted on Nov 18, 2009 by Marc Morehouse.

When the Hawkeyes have the ball

The Gophers appear to have more speed on defense than in past seasons and linebackers Nate Triplett (6-3, 247) and Lee Campbell (6-3, 246), playing behind a bruiser line, are active and disruptive. Campbell leads the team in tackles (106) and tackles for loss (9.0) with five pass breakups. He also leads the Big Ten in solo tackles. Triplett has two interceptions and returned a fumble 52 yards for a touchdown in the victory over Air Force. He’s second on the team in tackles (95) and has five tackles for loss.

Linebacker Simoni Lawrence (6-1, 221) might be Minnesota’s most complete defender with 73 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss and an interception.

The Gophers’ defense is directed by co-coordinators Ron Lee and Kevin Cosgrove, former assistants at the University of Wisconsin. Lee is considered more aggressive; Cosgrove a bit more conservative.

After four games, the Gophers were fourth in the league with 10 sacks. In the seven games since, UM has just six sacks and has fallen to last in the Big Ten. Burly tackle Eric Small (6-2, 306), who’ll start his 30th career game, leads with three sacks. He hasn’t had a sack in seven games, though. Senior defensive end Cedric McKinley (6-6, 282) has recovered a team-high and conference-best three fumbles. He also has two forced fumbles. Last week, he recovered a fumble at South Dakota State’s 11 late in the game to set up the game-winning FG. He’s No. 2 on the team with 7.5 tackles for loss. McKinley and tackle Garrett Brown (6-2, 310) lead UM’s D-linemen with 30 stops apiece.

Senior cornerback Traye Simmons (5-11, 180) recorded his second interception of the season last week and is now tied for the team lead. He leads the Gophers and is No. 4 in the Big Ten in passes defended with 10 (eight breakups and two interceptions). He did, however, leave last week’s game with a leg injury.

This defense, led by nine senior starters, saved the day against SDSU last week, an FCS school. The Gophers beat four turnovers out of the Jackrabbits, including an interception return for a score and a fumble that set up the game-winner.

The Gophers don’t have any stats that jump off the page, but they have produced 22 turnovers, which is comparable with league leaders. Nervous trend for the Gophers is they haven’t held a Big Ten opponent to less than 20 points and allow 28.9 points.

Iowa freshman quarterback James Vandenberg starts again this week. In his first career start — at Ohio State with a Big Ten title and Rose Bowl on the line — Vandenberg was better than you’d expect, completing 20 of 33 for 233 yards, two TDs and three interceptions. He took a third-down sack that knocked Iowa out of field-goal range in overtime, but he rallied Iowa from a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter.

“I’m impressed with the fact that he took a couple shots in the head and — that’s the stuff you don’t let guys do in practice,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said. “We can’t simulate 110,000 people and we’re not going to let guys come in and whack him, either, during most conditions. That’s the stuff that you really find out about a guy. Yes, he clearly can throw the football, and I think he showed that in high school even, as skinny as he was, but he can throw the football.”

He’s still so new, it’s hard to peg what he might be this week. But last week, he looked like a fundamentally and mechanically sound Big Ten QB with a live arm.

Running back is a minor mystery this week. Freshman Brandon Wegher couldn’t play last week after pain flared from a rib injury. Freshman Adam Robinson did play and played pretty well, rushing for 74 yards on 20 carries in his first game after suffering a high-ankle sprain three weeks ago. Considering his injury situation, it was a completely unexpected and eye-popping performance.

With quarterback Ricky Stanzi on the sidelines until the bowl game, Iowa’s top playmakers have become wide receivers Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt. Last week, they combined for nine catches for 149 yards and three TDs, two on McNutt receptions and DJK’s 99-yard kick return for a TD.

Advantage: Iowa

When the Gophers have the ball

The spread is no longer “the” scheme in Minnesota. First-year offensive coordinator Jed Fisch arrived at UM after spending the last eight seasons in the NFL. He prefers a power running game and zone blocking but isn’t afraid to throw in the “wildcat” formation and use multiple formations. The Gophers are last in the Big Ten in rushing at 102.1 yards a game. Their benchmark in the running game, though, was 42 carries for 166 yards (4.0 yards a carry) in the 35-24 victory at Northwestern on Sept. 26. The Gophers’ 3.1 yards a carry is tied for the worst in the Big Ten.

The Gophers split their carries between two running backs, Duane Bennett (371, leading rusher) and Kevin Whaley (rushing leader last week with 56). Bennett had just 14 yards on six carries last week. Whaley might be “the guy” this week. He’s a fast but fearless back despite his size (5-9, 179). If he hits an open gap, he can take do some damage.

Backup and “wildcat” quarterback MarQueis Gray (6-4, 222) also had been an effective rushing, averaging 5.6 yards on 37 carries. He might be able to keep Iowa’s defense off balance, similar to the unspectacular-but-steady performance Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor produced last week against the Hawkeyes (14 of 17 and 29 rushing yards).

Quarterback Adam Weber (197.1 yards a game) is tied with Stanzi for the Big Ten interception lead with 14 to go with 12 TD passes. He’s the only regular starting QB in the Big Ten who has more interceptions than TD passes. Since wide receiver Eric Decker, a Biletnikoff candidate until a foot injury ended his season four weeks ago, suffered a season-ending foot injury, Weber’s completion percentage has trended downward. His 53.9 percentage (159 of 295) is worst in the Big Ten. Since a breakout performance against Michigan State on Oct. 31 — five TD passes and 61.3 completion percentage — he has two interceptions and one TD. Last week against SDSU, his pass efficiency was 75.7. He’s last in the Big Ten in that stat.

Tight end Nick Tow-Arnett leads UM in receiving with 34 receptions and 434 yards.

The losing stat for Iowa’s defense coming out of Ohio State was rush yards. The Buckeyes hammered Iowa for 229 yards, a number that simply gave OSU too much rope in a 27-24 overtime victory. It was the first time Iowa’s D had been dinged for 200-plus yards since 256 against Penn State in 2007. It was also the first game Iowa allowed three sustained monster drives — 17-, eight- and 11-play drives.

One potentially ugly matchup for the Gophers is Iowa’s D-line vs. UM’s O-line. Minnesota is last in the Big Ten in sacks allowed (34). SDSU piled up four just last week. The Hawkeyes have compiled 14 of their 23 sacks in the last five weeks.

Defensive end Adrian Clayborn is on a tear, racking up 5.5 of his 8.5 sacks in the last five weeks. After a slow start, one sack in the first four games, Clayborn is now tied for second in the Big Ten and 24th in the country in sacks. He’s also tied for third and 13th nationally with 16.5 tackles for loss. He might be playing his way into the NFL draft.

After holding opponents to less than 40 percent on third downs the last four weeks, the Hawkeyes allowed Northwestern and Ohio State keep drives alive the last two weeks with 50 percent (9 of 18) and 47 percent (8 of 17).

Linebacker Jeremiha Hunter missed the second half of Ohio State with an ankle injury. Ferentz said he could possibly return Saturday, but he didn’t practice on Tuesday. Junior Jeff Tarpinian replaced Hunter. Iowa received a boost last week when safety Brett Greenwood returned from a sprained neck that cost him two games.

SDSU had a lot of success with run blitzes and aggression against Minnesota’s O-line. Iowa doesn’t blitz a lot, but this might be the week to break tendency.

Advantage: Iowa

Special teams

The only memorable performance for the Gophers in last year’s 55-0 carbuncle was Troy Stoudermire’s kick returns. He had a record 283 yards on nine returns. This season, he’s seventh in the Big Ten with 25.5 yards on a conference-high 38 returns. The Gophers’ punt return stat is kind of weird. They’re sixth in the nation at 15.7 yards a return, but they’re returned just six punts, fewest in the Big Ten.

Junior kicker Eric Ellestad went four games without a field goal from Oct. 10-31, but has four in the last two games, including three against SDSU last week. He also missed an ugly 41-yarder that would’ve given UM a lead early in the fourth quarter. He’s made 11 of 14 attempts this season, but is 0-for-3 from 40 to 49 yards.

Senior punter Blake Haudan dropped five of his eight punts inside the 20-yard line against SDSU. He also boomed a season-long 63-yarder.

After a streak of six straight, Iowa kicker Daniel Murray has missed three of his last five and has officially become unsteady. Last week at Ohio State, he pushed a 22-yarder wide right. It was his second miss from less than 30 yards this season. He started line driving kicks five weeks ago against Michigan State and has been off since.

Johnson-Koulianos snapped Iowa’s streak of 242 kick returns without a TD with last week’s 99-yarder. The play was made by a blend of good blocking and a move DJK made on the sideline.

Advantage: Iowa

The Scoreboard

The Hawkeyes are 13th in the BCS rankings. They need to maintain this week in order to be eligible for a BCS bowl, which would be their second since the BCS ’ inception in 1998. A 9-3 finish and a plunge down the bowl lotto would be a gut punch for a team that smelled roses not so long ago. During the Hayden Fry era, the Hawkeyes would have the occasional bobble in the Floyd of Rosedale game. Ferentz’s teams haven’t and there’s no reason to think today will be any different. Vandenberg is the caveat. He had a terrific debut at Ohio State, but he’s still the new guy.

Iowa 28, Minnesota 10