The Hlog by Mike Hlas
Hlas’ AP Top 25 ballot for Week 12
Posted on Nov 22, 2009 by Mike Hlas.
This was easy this week. My top 10 didn’t change.
Waiting until 11 p.m., Iowa time, for Oregon to stave off Arizona in double-overtime helped prevent a shift in the second 10, but all’s well that end’s well if you’re a Duck.
This week I separated the no-loss teams from the one-loss teams from the two-loss teams from the three-loss teams, and included no four-loss teams. Except I have two-loss Temple 22nd below some three-loss teams because, well, let’s face it. Temple’s not a Top 25 team even in this age of mediocrity, er, parity.
I moved 10-2 Penn State ahead of 10-2 owa by a spot. Yes, yes, yes, Iowa beat Penn State at Penn State. In September. And yes, yes, yes, Penn State was lousy at home against Ohio State, a team the Hawkeyes gallantly fought to overtime.
But we’ve got 12 weeks of material to work with here now, people. Penn State won six Big Ten games by double-digits and five by 18 or more points. It steamrollered Michigan State at East Lansing Saturday.
This doesn’t affect the BCS standings by a fragment of an iota, Hawkeye fans. So put down those torches and pitchforks. You know, you just don’t see the old torch-and-pitchfork combo much anymore. These kids with their lasers and Uzis. It’s just not the same.
On with my ballot:
1. Florida. My preseason No. 1, and I never moved it. Call it laziness.
2. Texas. My people tell me the Longhorns will win the national title.
3. TCU. Monsters.
4. Alabama. Great win over Chattanooga Saturday. (Sarcasm)
5. Cincinnati. Hosts Illinois on Friday before finishing at Pitt.
6. Boise State. BCS, I’ve asked so little from you. Spare me Orlando and send Iowa to the
Fiesta Bowl to play the Broncos.
7. Georgia Tech. Pity the defense who plays these guys in the Orange Bowl, if Tech gets past Clemson in the ACC title game.
8. Ohio State. Hail to the Victors.
9. Pittsburgh. Must win at West Virginia this week to make the Dec. 5 game with Cincinnati a biggie.
10. Oregon. Great gut-check win at Arizona. Oregon State at Oregon on Dec. 3 for the Rose Bowl berth, winner-take-all.
11. Penn State.
12. Iowa. Hawkeyes finished No. 8 in 2002, 2003 and 2004. Will be tough to duplicate this year, but a BCS bowl bid would enhance the chances significantly.
13. Oklahoma State. Lackluster at home against lowly Colorado.
14. Oregon State. Hot team. That Civil War game in Eugene should be a doozy.
15. Virginia Tech
16. California. Very impressive offensive showing at Stanford to retain the Axe.
17. Clemson. Six-game winning streak.
18. Nebraska. Since losing to Iowa State, has won four in a row and allowed just 33 points.
19. North Carolina. Nice win at Boston College for surging Heels.
20. Miami. ACC is either underrated or extremely ordinary. How do I know which sitting in Iowa?
21. Mississippi. It took until late November, but Rebels finally beat someone of note in LSU on the road.
22. Temple. I was the first AP voter to put the Owls on the ballot. Now, everybody (well several people) is on the bandwagon.
23. Wisconsin. Close loss at Northwestern dropped the Badgers to where they fit in the Big Ten’s bowl chain – the Outback.
24. USC. Why 3-loss Trojans ahead of 4-loss Stanford when Stanford crushed USC in L.A.? Why am I questioning myself? After 11 games, USC’s overall record holds up a teeny bit better.
25. Navy. Will handle Army. Anybody’s Army.



"I moved 10-2 Penn State ahead of 10-2 owa by a spot. Yes, yes, yes, Iowa beat Penn State at Penn State. In September. And yes, yes, yes, Penn State was lousy at home against Ohio State, a team the Hawkeyes gallantly fought to overtime.
But we’ve got 12 weeks of material to work with here now, people. "
Apparently, you actually mean that we have 10 weeks of material to work with here.
let me get this straight…Iowa beat PSU, played a tougher schedule, had the same record and played OSU tougher on the road then PSU did at home..but PSU is the better team?
No wonder nobody reads newspapers anymore.
I know I am glad I cancelled my subscription! It's writing like this that makes me feel good about my decision.
Mike:
Iowa 21, Penn State 10
Iowa 21, Penn State 10
Iowa 21, Penn State 10
Iowa 21, Penn State 10
Iowa 21, Penn State 10
Iowa 21, Penn State 10
Iowa 21, Penn State 10
Iowa 21, Penn State 10
Iowa 21, Penn State 10
Iowa 21, Penn State 10
Iowa 21, Penn State 10
Iowa 21, Penn State 10
Twelve weeks, not 10.
I'm not hard-headed about this. I may have been too impressed with how Penn State obliterated Michigan State yesterday. I would say Penn State is a marginally better team than Iowa right now. If you go over the last month, Iowa struggled mightily against Indiana at home before winning lost at home to Northwestern, lost at OT at Ohio State in a terrific effort, and got half a great performance (defense) and half a mediocre one (offense) against Minnesota in winning.
Penn State laid a big egg against the Buckeyes, but has been a very efficient, dominating team otherwise against similar competition.
The head-to-head should and does matter, and I've had Iowa above Penn State every week from the time they played until this one. But this deep into the season, head-to-head can't be the only criteria if the records and competition are similar. USC isn't better than Cal or Ohio State though it beat both. Houston isn't better than Oklahoma State though it won at Stillwater in September.
The bowls will be the final exams and will weigh heavier on the rankings than the regular-season. If Iowa outperforms Penn State in the bowls, it will go past the Lions in the poll that counts, the final one.
The only poll that matters in the end is the final one. The bowl-game performances of Iowa, Penn State and everyone else will weigh heavily.
Mike: Would you put PSU ahead of Iowa with a healthy Stanzi, Robinson, and others? That's where they will be again come bowl time which is what these last few weekly ballot submissions determine. In that regard, Iowa is the better team and deserves the spot….no?
The more I think about this the dumber it seems.
Iowa has a tougher schedule than PSU. They have the same record. They beat them head to head. Yet at the same time Hlas throws out the fact that Iowa took a team to OT on the road that embarrassed PSU at home, he brings up the fact that PSU beat MSU by more than Iowa did, as if that is more meaningful.
Dumb, dumb, dumb.
[...] Ohio State much more closely (27-24 in overtime) than did Penn State (24-7). But some argue, like The Gazette’s Mike Hlas, that Penn State’s body of work is more impressive than Iowa’s. The Big 12 features a [...]
Geez Hlas…no wonder the locals hate the Gazette. Iowa gets enough bs from the national media…..they shouldnt have to get it from their local market too. Thankfully the AP poll has no bearing in the BCS because plenty of you jokers don't take it serious.
gfairow: What was the score of the Iowa-Penn State game?
I admit I may have been overly taken with how Penn State obliterated Michigan State at East Lansing yesterday and not overwhelmed with Iowa's play in three of its last four games.
After 12 weeks, there are other criteria than just head-to-head, especially when that head-to-head was in September, not November. Would you rank USC ahead of Cal or Ohio State today given how the last month of the season has played out for those teams? Would you rank Houston ahead of Oklahoma State, when the Cowboys are 6-1 in the Big 12 with only a loss to Texas while Houston lost to UTEP?
But the only poll that matters is the final one, and Iowa will secure a high place if it wins. I've voted Iowa ahead of Penn State in every poll from Week 4 through Week 11, and if I think Iowa had a better season than Penn State (or Ohio State) after the bowls, that's where I'll vote it.
After 12 weeks, there are other criteria than just head-to-head, especially when that head-to-head was in September, not November? Would you rank USC ahead of Cal or Ohio State today given how the last month of the season has played out for those teams?
USC has lost more total games than both those teams, sparky.
——————————————————————————————————–
Would you rank Houston ahead of Oklahoma State, when the Cowboys are 6-1 in the Big 12 with only a loss to Texas while Houston lost to UTEP?
Actually, I probably would rank 1 loss Houston ahead of 2 loss OSU, given that Houston beat them head to head on the road. But let's say it was a 2-loss Houston team vs. 2-loss OSU team. OSU probably would get the nod due to, and only due to, it's tougher subsequent schedule and better subsequent wins. PSU holds no such advantage when it comes to Iowa…if anything, Iowa's subsequent schedule has been considerably tougher.
By the way…these are TERRIBLE analogies:
"After 12 weeks, there are other criteria than just head-to-head, especially when that head-to-head was in September, not November.
Would you rank USC ahead of Cal or Ohio State today given how the last month of the season has played out for those teams? "
USC has lost more total games than both those teams. Iowa and Penn State have the same record.
"Would you rank Houston ahead of Oklahoma State, when the Cowboys are 6-1 in the Big 12 with only a loss to Texas while Houston lost to UTEP? "
Actually, I probably would rank 1 loss Houston ahead of 2 loss OSU, given that Houston beat them head to head on the road. But let's say it was a 2-loss Houston team vs. 2-loss OSU team. OSU probably would get the nod due to, and ONLY due to, it's tougher subsequent schedule and better subsequent wins. PSU holds no such advantage when it comes to Iowa…if anything, Iowa's subsequent schedule has been considerably tougher.
After further review, the NFL has decided to declare the New England Patriots as NFL champions despite losing to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII. An NFL spokesman expressed sympathy to Giants fans, but clearly pointed out that New England was 18-1 this season and clearly was the better team throughout the regular season and the playoffs. The NFL has also declared that 1979 San Diego Chargers w/Dan Fouts, the 1984 Miami Dolphins w/Dan Marino, and the 1990 Buffalo Bills w/Jim Kelly clearly were the best teams in their respective seasons and rightly should have been declared NFL champions.
Mike:
Per your request…
Iowa 21, Penn State 10.
MIke:
Had Iowa finished below Penn State in the Big Ten standings, you might have a point
Had Iowa lost with a healthy Stanzi at QB, or if he weren't expected back for the bowl, you might have a point.
Had Iowa not taken Ohio State to overtime at Ohio State, one week after Ohio State took Penn State apart at Penn State, you might have a point.
You claim to look at the body of work but, as you admitted it your reply to me above, you put too much emphasis on yesteday's results.
Iowa comes from behind to win game after game and the media gives Iowa too little credit. Well, ugly as it may have appeared to you, Iowa led the whole way in its win over Minnesota and still get's too little credit. It's not a team that's going to win impressively, as Penn State did at Michigan State, but it is a team that wins.
If Iowa played Penn State today, Iowa would still win.
No clearly it's more important to beat weaker teams badly than to actually win a game head to head.
[...] Ohio State much more closely (27-24 in overtime) than did Penn State (24-7). But some argue, like The Gazette’s Mike Hlas, that Penn State’s body of work is more impressive than Iowa’s. The Big 12 features a possible [...]
"I admit I may have been overly taken with how Penn State obliterated Michigan State at East Lansing yesterday and not overwhelmed with Iowa's play in three of its last four games."
So…I take it you weren't equally taken by how PSU was obliterated at home by Ohio State?
That was so long ago though. These are clearly different teams now.
I have to say, I like reading you but ranking Penn State ahead of Iowa is asinine. They have not beaten anyone. Their signature win is Michigan State. An unranked team that is falling apart at the seams and will be looked back at as the beginning of the end of a very overrated coach's career. Dantonio is a mess. Other than that steller win, PSU's second signature win is at Northwestern, who suffered the same fate as Iowa did against, surprise, Northwestern. Kafka was KILLING Penn State and then went down to injury. I would bet that Northwestern would beat Penn State at home if they played this Saturday.
I am sad to see that you have bought into the style points argument like every other sports journalist. Well, Stanford was the sylish team until Saturday. Football is still about winning.
Mike:
Shouldn't you rate Temple above Penn State? Sure, Penn State beat Temple 31-6 back in September, but that was then and the Owls have won all nine of their games afterward while Penn State has lost twice…at home. Temple obviously has a much more impressive body of work.
This whole thing illustrates how stupid college football polls and the bowl system are. You can 1) play a tougher schedule, 2) have higher quality wins, and 3) beat another team head to head and still be ranked lower than that team because some sports writer who inexplicably has a say in this thinks it's more impressive that they blew out bad teams by more than you did.
At this point, Michigan State is bad. I'm sorry we needed a last second play to beat them. But they are a bad team. And, my other post got nixed I think but the bottom line, MSU is not a sexy win. Their coach is a couple of 6-5 seasons away from looking for another job. He is not very good. He is a drama queen and QB killer.
Yes, at this point Michigan State is not good. But the Michigan State team Iowa played was fighting for first place in the Big Ten. The Michigan State team Penn State played had recently gained bowl eligibility and, other than a slightly better bowl, had little else to gain.
You are exactly right. And, unfortunately Hlas' claim that this won't make any difference in the BCS is as wrong as his claim that Penn State is better than Iowa. Mike: Aren't you suppose to come up with tortured reasoning to rank the local team higher, rather than lower? That's what other sports writers do and it is one of the reasons why Iowa has not gotten the national respect it deserves this year. Your column will now be cited as one reason to jump Penn State over Iowa for a BCS bowl. If that happens pitchforks and torches will be too good for you.
BTW, Mike, your request that Hawkeye fans "put down those torches and pitchforks" speaks volumes. It's a lot like when you say to your wife, "Don't get mad, but…" You know she'll be mad. And you know it's because you screwed up.
Mike:
Body of work?
Neither Iowa nor Penn State played Purdue – that's a wash. Iowa beat Wisconsin (the Badgers are 8-3 overall, 5-3 in the Big Ten) while Penn State beat Illinois (the Illini are 3-7 overall, 2-6 in the Big Ten). Advantage: Iowa.
It's easier to understand if you realize that for Hlas, body of work doesn't mean your strength of schedule or the quality of your wins. It means how bad you blow out the teams you do beat.
Truly disappointing.
Your voting Penn State higher because they trounced a couple of mediocre football teams? They’ve crapped the bed in games that mattered but you you’re giving them style points against Michigan (6-6) State? (A team, I’ll remind you, that was rolled by Adam Weber w/out Decker!)
I can kinda understand your logic if PSU had blown out a Wisconsin late in the year. But right now they’re hanging their hats solely on a victory over Northwestern.
I’m a fan of your work, Mike, but this feels like dishonesty.
Howler
Mike:
Your request that Hawkeye fans "put down those torches and pitchforks" speaks volumes. It's kinda like when you say to your wife, "Don't get mad, but…" You know she's gonna be mad. And you know it's because you messed up.
Your arguments have swayed me.
I'm completely serious. At least 90 percent of what you people have said is rational and persuasive. My ballot this week flew in the face of the way I've voted all year, in which all things being fairly equal, head-to-head results matter.
I cast the ballot near midnight last night when Penn State's powerful performance at Michigan State was etched in my mind. In hindsight, slowly going back over the 12 weeks would have been a good idea instead of reacting so strongly to one game. Just remembering Penn State's futile performance against Ohio State might have been helpful.
What swayed me most, though, was when I asked myself a little while ago (What, you don't talk to yourself?) who would win if Iowa and Penn State played on a neutral field tomorrow, and I didn't see Penn State having much more success than it had in September in Happy Valley.
Next week is another ballot. I suspect I'll flip-flop my Penn State-Iowa placement. I doubt all those in the AP and other polls will do so, but maybe if you lobbied them …
Mike,
I think the comments here completely destroy your argument. You think your vote means nothing but you’ve just given the bowl committees an excuse to pass Iowa for Penn State.
You should be embarrassed.
I posted this in a more expanded form but my comment has yet to be approved. To my own blog!
In a capsule – and hopefully the entire post shows up here eventually – you make good, rational arguments that would be hard to argue against even if I were so inclined. Next week, my ballot may look different.
Mike, Fans don't understand sports writers and columnists. They react as if you're paid by the university of iowa to cover their team in a favorable manner as a "homer". If you did that you would lose all sense of credibility among knowledgable sports fans! The gazette ( although I.m sure want Iowa to win) expec t you to be fair and impartial and that is why you were hired! I personally think you have rated Iowa too high all season and I've wanted them to win because of family ties! Whatever happened to the big-ten? Are they that weak of a league all of a sudden? Would Iowa have gone 10-2 in any other conference? I very much doubt it!
You realize that we're complaining about his ranking of TWO Big 10 teams, right?
Here's fair and impartial:
Iowa 21, Penn State 10…at State College.
Houston has two losses. It lost to Central Florida a week ago.
Argument still stands. There is absolutely nothing backing up your argument for PSU over Iowa. Iowa beat them. Played a tougher schedule. Won tougher games on the road. Actually played a non-conf schedule. You have nothing backing your believe other than the always reliable "eye test." So even though Iowa wins against better teams on the road (including the team your comparing) you're going to move up PSU because they blew out a MSU team that has given up. Oh and just 2 weeks ago Iowa went to OSU with their backup QB and went to OT. That same team that also went into PSU and beat them.
Seriously you have nothing.
Also one could argue these polls are more important than the final poll. The final poll is there just for show. These polls may actually sway bowl committees. Hopefully they don't because why would anybody listen to you fools.
So lets keep this simple.
They have the same record.
Iowa played the much tougher schedule.
Iowa's two loses came without their starting QB.
Iowa beat them at their place.
Iowa is better and should be ranked higher.
Would Alabama have won at PSU, at Wisconsin, at MSU and managed OT at Ohio State? I very much doubt it. But so what? Does that PROVE anything? How about if Florida had played Iowa's schedule? You think they'd be undefeated now? I very much doubt it. How about, right, Boisie? How about TCU and Cincy? Alabama had to rely on a couple missed and blocked FGs to nip a decidedly mediocre Tennessee team. Of course, 'Bama did blow out Chattanooga last week while Florida was toying with Florida International. Anybody can justify anything they want.
If Iowa had played Ohio State the day the Buckeyes played Purdue, Iowa would have won. And if Purdue had played Ohio State on the date Iowa did, OSU would have won. So Iowa is penalized because it beat Penn State in September? And PSU is rewarded because it beat an MSU team that hasn't been the same since the Hawkeyes beat it up physically and then ripped out its heart with a last play victory? C'mon. Get a brain. You can play all these scenarios you want. Youcan speculate and calculate and computate… Heck, 10,000 computer simulations by ESPN determined that Wisconsin would beat Iowa in Madison. OOOPS! They actually played the game and the 10,000 sims turned out to be wrong… Or maybe you believe the GAME was wrong and the sims were right? It's all a bunch of baloney. Believe whatever you want. But believe this: Iowa BEAT a PSU bent on revenge in front of 110,000 of their fans. And believe this: Iowa makes a 22-yard FG in Columbus, and Iowa is 11-1 and Rose Bowl bound. And how about believing this: a ridiculous holding call on Iowa is NOT made and a 65-yard TD run puts Iowa ahead of NW to stay, 17-14, and Iowa goes 12-0, even with its QB out. Believe THAT…
I've actually BEEN a sportswriter and columnist. What people don't understand is the misuse of "logic," whether it be by a columnist, sportswriter, or a member of the general public. Having been a sportswriter/columnist, I can assure they have no special access to logic or objectivity. They put their pants on one leg at a time. And some are so anxious to be perceived as "objective" that they become biased in the process. Facts are facts. Speculation is speculation. Opinions are opinions. And opinions are no better than the facts used to support them. Speculation is great because it can take you anywhere you want to go. You think Alabama would beat Iowa. Good for you. I think Iowa would beat Alabama. You think Oregon would crush Iowa. Oregon did not crush Arizona, which Iowa beat, but that was then. What about now? Think whatever you want. The fact is Iowa beat Arizona which would have beaten Oregon except that an Oregon line-drive FG hit the crossbar and flipped over it, miraculously, for 3 points. Of course, that was skill. Had Iowa survived in such a manner, it would have been more proof that Iowa isn't good, only lucky… Spin it however you want. The truth is out there…
I approved it.
Signed,
The Man
So is it body of work or what team has the prettier boxscore? There is no way to analyze margin or victory over common opponents to determine the better team. That happened on the field in Happy Valley. Iowa won. Just as they won against AZ, at Wiscy, and at MSU. Penn St. failed in all their big games this year…and at home. What is their signature win? At MSU? On the last game of the year against a team coming of a string of heatbreaking losses and resigned to a disappointing year? This shouldn't even be a discussion.
Mike:
You will recall that the Iowa/Michigan State game was a tenacious, hard-hitting game for both teams. Some of the hits were almost vicious. Iowa had four players sustain injuries in that game. I would like to make the point that Michigan State in subsequent games was not the same team that played against Iowa. I think Michigan State also sustained a huge toll from that game and a let down thereafter. Before they played PSU, Minnesota scored 42 points against them and Purdue scored 37 points against them. Therefore, it should be no surprise that PSU scored 42 points against them. Thus, as others pointed out, I think you should have ranked Iowa ahead of PSU.
gfairow- – - In response to your IOWA 21-PENN ST. 10; So penn st. had a bad day; what would the score be today if they met anywhere? Don't you think Penn State would be favored by at least 7 points by the odds makers? Regardless, neither one is a top ten team and would have a hard time winning in the S.E.C., a break even season would be about all they could achieve! I know 21-10.
Penn State was favored against Iowa, but Iowa won. Michigan was favored against Iowa, but Iowa won. Wisconsin was favored against Iowa, but Iowa won. Michigan State was favored against Iowa, but Iowa won.
I have no doubt that Penn State would be favored if it played Iowa today. And I have no doubt that Iowa would win – not because Penn State would have a "bad day," but because Iowa has the better team.
WHY is NO one pointing out that ONLY by a stroke of LUCK did Oregon manage to outscore Arizona on Saturday? Had IOWA ended up tying a game that they eventually won the way Oregon did, even Terry Bradshaw would be whining about it. But Oregon? Not a peep. And yet the FACT is Arizona would have won in regulation but for this: a line drive Oregon FG that ended up tying the game at 24 — but only after that FG crashed into the crossbar and, inconceivably, managed to flip up over it… good for 3 points. Had that FG been quarter of an inch lower, Oregon loses. But I guess when you're as great as Oregon, those line drive FGs that splat into the crossbar are merely part of the plan. When a pathetic team like Iowa — which somehow didn't need even one OT to beat Arizona — gets a break, the whining never ends. Wow.
It is all so subjective. I don't know why everyone gets so worked up about one or two positions in a top 25 by one sportswriter. But it does generate some interesting banter. Mike, if your goal was to generate some buzz and traffic here with your rankings, you certainly succeeded!
Pugonick, you gotta be kidding… "So Penn State had a bad day…" So Iowa had a bad day against OSU — dropped 5 passes, including one for a TD, missed a chip-shot 22-yard FG, started a QB that had never started before and was completing 30 percent of his passes — so why isn't Iowa headed to the Rose Bowl? And you think Iowa didn't have a "bad day" against NW? You think Iowa wouldn't beat NW with a healthy Stanzi? What a bunch of bunk. Get over it. That's why they play the games. And both teams are playing at the same time and at the same place. Too bad PSU usually suffers from a "Bad Day" when they see the Hawkeyes across from them. I guess USC had a bad day when it gave up over 50 points each to Oregon and Stanford…and Oregon had a bad day when it got beat by Stanford which then got beat by Cal that had to rally in the fourth quarter to beat…MINNESOTA. Oh yah, but that was in September and some people don't count what happens in September…which is about as logical as saying winning 25 baseball games in April doesn't count as much as winning 25 games in September…
21-10 is not subjective. 10-2 is not subjective. Iowa losing its last 6 games by a TOTAL of 22 points is not subjective. Game results are not subjective. NOTHING in ANY of the polls PROVES anything. Remember when Iowa was a 17-point underdog at Ohio State? THAT's subjective. The final score is NOT subjective. Would Boise State be undefeated if it played in the SEC, the Pac-10, the Big 10, the ACC? The truth is, NOBODY KNOWS. Did Boise State have a chance against mighty Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl a couple years back? Of course not… OOPS. That was subjective. The objective FACT: Boise State WINS. The whole BCS is a joke and always will be. You can call a game a "National Championship Game," but that doesn't make it one.
Mike, and even after our beers in the Holiday Inn Express Lounge, you go and vote for PSU ahead of the Hawks!
LOL….knew you were gonna take some shots here. People have presented some pretty good, logical arguments. Good to see you can take them under advisement…!
Mike….Wow !! So Penn St. beats three teams with 6+ wins or more…Northwestern, Temple and Mich St and gets steamrolled at home….twice ! But somehow comes out on top of Iowa because they looked better against Mich St…..so what. Iowa looked better against Ohio St. than Penn st did…on the road. It took a freak sack and injury for Northwestern to beat us and Iowa manhandled Wisconsin in their backyard…and Arizona was not as close as the score indicated but yeah, Penn St. should be ranked ahead of Iowa….and didn't Iowa beat 7 teams with 6+ wins or more…how did Penn st do again in that department ? Come on Mike, Wake up !!