Hlas’ AP Top 25 ballot for Week 13

Posted on Nov 29, 2009 by Mike Hlas.

OK, almost every team has finished its 12-week regular season. So I took some time in my Twin Cities hotel room Saturday night (while flipping between Notre Dame-Stanford and Georgia-Georgia Tech) and forced myself to see who’s beaten who.

Then I moved Alabama from fourth to second, dropped Texas from second to fourth, and kept TCU at No. 3.

TCU ahead of Texas? Good golly, is the man daft? Yes, and yes.

I surveyed the schedules of the six 12-0 teams (six!) to see how many teams they’ve defeated that were ranked at the time, and how many were ranked as of last week’s AP Top 25. The breakdown:

Florida 1 and 1, Alabama 4-3, TCU 2-3, Texas 2-1, Cincinnati 2-1, Boise State 1-1.

So why don’t I have Alabama and TCU ahead of Florida if this is my main criteria? Well, it’s not my only criteria, just a significant one. I’ve said all along I think defending-champion Florida should be No. 1 until it’s defeated, but the Gators pass the eyeball test as a squad as deserving of No. 1 as any other.

I have Alabama ahead of TCU because its overall schedule has been harder. But I’m not convinced ‘Bama is better than the Horned Frogs. TCU’s average score the last seven weeks is 47-10, and that includes wins over BYU and Utah.

Discounting a 10-point win at Texas A&M is foolish, and sometimes you find yourself in shootouts on the road. But seeing Texas allow 39 points was disconcerting. You expect better defense than that from a national-title game particpant, which the Longhorns will be if they beat Nebraska in the Big 12 championship contest Saturday.

Look, if the Horns beat Nebraska and the SEC champion, they’ll be No. 1 when it’s over and they’ll almost surely deserve to be. I’d vote for them, unless they won on a controversial play and TCU beat a good bowl team by, say, 47-10.

Plus, while I think the SEC is overrated this year, I’ll take Alabama’s list of victims (bowl-bound Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU, Auburn, Kentucky) over Texas’ (bowl-bound Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas A&M, Wyoming). Again, just one of Texas’ victims was ranked as of last Sunday’s AP poll.

Would TCU beat Texas on a neutral field this season? I think it would have a 50-50 chance, but I’m a bright-eyed optimist. And, we’ll never know. So I hope TCU gets a good bowl opponent in order to show America what it really has. Or doesn’t have. 

The bowls will settle all this gobble-wobble, anyway. Probably.

Is Texas’ overall schedule better than TCU’s. Yes, though not as overwhelmingly so as you might think. But the Frogs have been so dominant on both sides of the ball. Plus, TCU tried very hard to play a good nonconference schedule, traveling to Clemson (a good team) and Virginia (not a good team, but has been from time to time over the years). Texas’ non-conference foes were Louisiana-Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP and Central Florida. Yes, Wyoming is in TCU’s conference. Wyoming also has seven wins, making it the best non-league team Texas played.

OK, enough prologue. Here are the next 21 teams:

5. Cincinnati. I hope the Bearcats win at Pitt to finish 12-0. Six unbeaten teams entering the bowls would be a delight for BCS-haters.

6. Boise State. If the Broncos are denied a BCS bowl for the second-straight year as a 12-0 team, just make it official and turn the BCS over to the Corleone family.

7. Oregon (9-2). It has three wins over teams that are currently ranked. Beat Oregon State in Eugene Thursday night to win the Pac-10 title outright, and the Ducks are clearly the most-distinguished non-unbeaten team in the nation. No one in the nation has one defeat, by the way. Now that is weird.

8. Ohio State (10-2). Your Big Ten champion.

9. Iowa (10-2). It is unconscionable that Penn State is ranked ahead of Iowa in the AP, USA Today and Harris polls (or was last week, anyhow) given that the Hawkeyes beat the Nittany Lions at Penn State. You Iowa fans should hound every voter who has Penn State above the Hawkeyes. Or don’t waste your time with such pursuits, since the Fiesta Bowl’s at-large selections will have nothing to do with rankings.

10. Penn State (10-2). Hasn’t beaten a ranked team, which is peculiar. The Lions did crush Northwestern and Michigan State on the road in the final third of the season.

11. Georgia Tech (10-2). Losing at home to Georgia Saturday cost Tech a shot at a Top Five finish.

12. Pittsburgh (10-2). No shame in a narrow road loss to West Virginia Friday other than being the losers of the Backyard Brawl, which hurts enough. Will still go to a BCS bowl with a home win over Cincinnati.

13. Oregon State (8-3). Has won four straight. All three of its losses were close games against good teams.

14. Virginia Tech (9-3). Also has won four straight, though none of the conquered was a particularly strong foe.

15. California (8-3) A couple of bad losses in midseason, but has come on big with wins over good teams in Arizona and Stanford in its last two outings.

16. Miami (9-3). Big win at South Florida Saturday, and three wins over ranked teams.

17. Nebraska (9-3). Five wins in a row. If that streak reaches six, the Huskers have done something big.

18. Houston (10-2). Losses to UTEP and Central Florida on the road don’t impress, but wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech give luster to an otherwise dull schedule.

19. West Virginia (8-3). In its last two games, lost by three points at Cincinnati, then beat Pittsburgh by the same margin.

20. USC (9-3). The Trojans aren’t the Trojans this year, but if they come to the Holiday Bowl ready to play, they’ll make a Big 12 team pay. It’s so funny that Pete Carroll took umbrage at Stanford going for two points against the Trojans when they got ahead 48-20, but it was OK for USC to throw a long touchdown pass in the last minute against UCLA Saturday night when the Trojans had victory well in hand.

21. BYU (10-2). With wins over Oklahoma and Utah, it’s a successful season in Provo even without the Mountain West title.

22. LSU (9-3). I haven’t been sold on this team all year, but 9-3 with losses to Alabama and Florida looks good on paper.

23. Stanford (8-4). Would the Cardinal’s fans have taken a season with wins over USC, Oregon and Notre Dame though it meant a loss to rival Cal? Yes, but not without deep thought.

24.  Northwestern (8-4). Going 3-0 in November with wins over Iowa and Wisconsin warrants a token vote.

25. Wisconsin (9-3). Who would be a better Big Ten representative in the Outback Bowl, Northwestern or Wisconsin?