Elections, Government
Poll: Corbett leads Fagan in Cedar Rapids mayoral race
Posted on Nov 01, 2009 by Rick Smith.
A Gazette Communications poll finds that Ron Corbett has an eight point edge on Brian Fagan heading into Tuesday’s mayoral vote.
Of 404 likely voters, 42 percent said they would vote for Corbett, 34 percent said they would vote for Fagan and 1 percent said they would vote for the third candidate in the race, P.T. Larson.
Neither of the leading mayoral candidates appears to be a sure winner, however. Results show 24 percent had not decided or did not answer the survey.
The scientific phone survey was conducted last week and has a margin of error of 4.9 percent. So Fagan’s backing could be more than 4 percent higher and Corbett’s more than 4 percent lower, an error margin that would cancel out Corbett’s lead.
Jeff Wolff, Gazette Communication’s senior manager for business and financial analysis, calls it an “extreme” case if the margin of error was working that way.
Wolff adds that Corbett’s numbers might be stronger than they appear because of his backing among those 36 and older — a group, Wolff said, that is more likely to vote than those younger than 36.
Corbett is favored 44 percent to 32 percent over Fagan by those ages 36 to 55 and 48 percent to 28 percent for those ages 56 and older.
Fagan is ahead 44 percent to 30 percent for those 18 to 35.
Overall, men support Corbett 43 percent to 38 percent over Fagan, while women give Corbett a 40 percent to 30 percent advantage.
Larson’s support is highest, 3 percent, among those 56 and older.
Corbett, 49, vice president at trucking firm CRST Inc., is running from outside city government and has been arguing that the current mayor and City Council have gotten the city off track and have been slow to act.
Fagan, 37, an attorney at Simmons Perrine Moyer Bergman and an at-large council member, says the council has worked hard, has developed a clear vision and built a solid foundation for the future, and now is not the time to retreat from that.
Larson, 52, who has run unsuccessfully for city office 12 previous times, says the city needs to focus more strongly on public safety and public infrastructure.
Beyond the mayoral race, the Gazette Communications survey found respondents are not overwhelmingly disillusioned with city government or incumbents.
For instance, 35.3 percent of those surveyed said the city was headed in the right direction, 21.1 percent said it was headed in the wrong direction and 43.6 said they didn’t know.
As for overall confidence in the City Council, 8 percent said they had high confidence and 47 percent said some confidence, while 29 percent said low confidence, 10 percent no confidence and 7 percent didn’t know or didn’t answer.
The 55 percent who said they had some or high confidence is a higher percentage than February 2009, when a Gazette Communications poll asked a similar question. Then 47 percent had at some or high confidence. In November 2007 — before the June 2008 flood — that percentage stood at 66 percent.
Outgoing Mayor Kay Halloran’s approval rating is now 17 percent, down from 20 percent in February 2009 and 40 percent in November 2007.
City Manager Jim Prosser’s approval rating is 25 percent, down from 29 percent in February 2009 and 41 percent in November 2007. However, 40 percent of those surveyed last week say they didn’t know how to rate Prosser.
On flood recovery, 3.8 percent said the city’s response has been excellent, 32.7 percent said good, 35.9 percent fair, 24.9 percent poor and 2.6 percent didn’t know. Flood victims among those surveyed answered slightly more favorably.
The Gazette Communications survey also asked residents whether they favored building a new City Hall or returning to the Veterans Memorial Building. The largest group, 36.2 percent, favored returning city offices to the building on May’s Island, while 18.4 percent said they favored building new. Another 31.2 percent said they didn’t know, and 14.2 percent said they favored some other option.
On Tuesday, six of the nine council seats — mayor, two at-large seats and the District 1, 3 and 5 seats — are on the election ballot.
96Bravo
01. Nov, 2009
One could make the point that Brian is really the incumbent; after all he is the Mayor Pro Tem, he is the self-decribed "voice of the city" after the flood, and he has had all the power of incumbency as the city's PR machine has churned out event after event to make him look good and convince 35% of the population that the city is "headed in the right direction". And oh yeah, there is the point of Mayor Halloran finacially backing him as well.
An incumbent like Brian has had twice the time (16 months) as Ron Corbett (who has been running for 8 months) since the flood to convince the citizens the he is the right man to lead this city. And incumbents who poll 34% a week before the election generally don't get another term.
basketcase
02. Nov, 2009
Corbett is the best choice when looking for a leader for Cedar Rapids. No other leaders are running against him.
John_Chase
01. Nov, 2009
I geuss P.T. may not stand for "part-time", but rather "Pummeled on Tuesday" perhaps?
MCb82
02. Nov, 2009
i'm beginning to think he runs over and over again on a bet.
mofoluck
01. Nov, 2009
I support fast ron corbett because he's RICH he's a good ole boy!
Iowarch
01. Nov, 2009
Corbett to me is the "Slick Willey" in this race, he has his hand in more pockets of people with a vested interest in building stuff, and getting in on the gravy train quickly with government money being the attraction. Fagan, although mis-guided in his belief of the capacity of our city manager to manage, at least has something of an open mind and the potential to change direction. Corbett has way to much money coming from vested interests and that will hamstring him into positions he can't or won't change to avoid the loss of campaign money for future elections. Think about it, which would you rather take your chances with?
sandmanssi
02. Nov, 2009
Open mind? Did you listen to the 600AM debate with him? A caller asked a simple, easy to answer question- Fa gan not only hung up on the caller, but then completely berated him on the air, almost yelling. The question- What do you think about the diconnect between the city council and the people of CR. Obviously if you can't answer the question calmly and with a cool head, you're not right for the job.
knarfgnik
02. Nov, 2009
I have been involved with flood recovery since the first and shortly after the flood waters had subsided Brian called me and said he wanted to come down to the Northwest Neighborhood and have me take him around to get an idea of how to proceed. I am still waiting to see him and I have asked him why he hasn't shown up. To see him on his ads say how he cares about the people is an insult to me and all flood victims still waiting to get their lives back together. We have created some new millionaires and a whole lot of poor people while waiting for Fagan's consultants to give him the word.
basketcase
03. Nov, 2009
I feel the same as you. Please encourage all your friends and family to vote tomorrow and make sure Fagan is not elected.
OwenHarper
03. Nov, 2009
Apparently, Fagan looked at the flood as a good PR campaign for his run for mayor. I guess his At Large position left him with lots of time on his hands.
basketcase
02. Nov, 2009
I second that – Brian is not the right person for the job.
knarfgnik
02. Nov, 2009
Sadly Brian Fagan has ignored the pleas of the flood victims and although he did come and help with the clean ups the neighborhoods held he has NEVER asked what he could do for the people. I have asked him over and over to LISTEN to the people and he has chose to LISTEN to the consultants. He absolutely believes they know more than the lowly citizens and will continue to take their costly advice. I have said the mistake the citizens made was we offered our advice for free and we should have charged for it Perhaps they would have listened if we had
basketcase
03. Nov, 2009
He has not listened to the poeple and if he's elected he will continue to turn a deaf ear to the common person.
cc1091
03. Nov, 2009
Elect Corbet? I will lay money that you won't like what you get.